Post Mountain Pine Beetle Impact Assessment of E.C. Manning Provincial Park

 

 

March 2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Submitted by

 

 

Amelia Needoba and Bruce Blackwell

B.A. Blackwell & Associates Ltd.

3087 Hoskins Rd.

North Vancouver, BC

 

 

 

Submitted to

 

 

 

Judy Millar

Mountain Pine Beetle Specialist

BC Ministry of Environment

102 Industrial Place

Penticton, BC


Executive Summary

This project was initiated based on a coarse scale mountain pine beetle (MPB) impact assessment of 88 BC Parks in 2005 (B.A. Blackwell & Associates Ltd. 2005). E.C. Manning Provincial Park was ranked as having moderate probability of impact from attack but extreme consequences of impact from attack. This result primarily reflects the mixed species composition and diverse ecosystems within the Park (lower probability of impact due to degree of pine composition) and the many values for which the Park is managed (higher consequence of impact). The results from the multi-Park analysis, in combination with Park planning priorities, led to the initiation of this more detailed, Park level mountain pine beetle impact assessment.

 

The objectives of this impact assessment were to:

  • Identify impacts on Park values resulting from mountain pine beetle attack;
  • Assess impacts over time and space;
  • Provide a reasonable assessment of impact given limited data, time and resources;
  • Provide results that can be used for future planning; and,
  • Develop recommendations for mitigation strategies and budgeting at the Park level.

 

The methods employed to meet these objectives utilized existing MPB pine kill projection modelling data, various inventory data available for the Park and expert opinion to derive predictions of impact. The project was broken down into three phases:

 

  1. Analysis of primary impact;
  2. Analysis of secondary impact; and,
  3. Final impact overlay and recommended actions.

 

Primary impact was defined as the direct impact of mountain pine beetle caused tree mortality and was used to identify where pine mortality resulted in changes in openness or in pine composition. These two primary impacts were used to define the ‘area of primary impact’ within which secondary impacts could be assessed.

 

Secondary impact was defined as the impact on park values resulting from one of two activity alternatives in response to primary impacts: 1) do nothing; and, 2) remove hazard trees. A stepped impact matrix was used to scope Park values and potential impacts on those values for inclusion in the analysis. Significance thresholds were set for each predicted impact based on available literature and expert opinion. Data for each value was loaded into GIS in order to spatially define the area of each value and, ultimately, the area of impact for each value.

 

The significance of each of the values was considered within the Park boundary only, as this is where BC Parks has jurisdiction. Therefore, this assessment does not reflect the significance of these values outside the Park where different management objectives apply. This assessment is coarse scale given the available data and its results are not field tested. In all cases, predicted impacts are simplified representations of complex effects. This assessment is a suitable tool for broad strategic planning but is not appropriate for planning at the operational level. In addition, it is possible that values at risk not captured in this assessment may exist at the site level. Verification of actual or potential impacts by qualified professionals is required in the field prior to any activities being planned. Data should not be mapped at a scale larger than 1:50,000 as this is the lowest reported accuracy of the input data.

 

The final impact overlay provided a spatial definition of impact within the park based on identified values judged to be impacted by ‘Do nothing’ or ‘Remove Hazard Trees’. The results of the spatial overlay defined where different actions were recommended based on the secondary impacts that occurred in each location. The area totals were as follows:

 

  • Hazard Tree Removal: 1,241 ha area of hazard tree removals reflected the significant predicted impact on public safety.
  • Mitigate:1,665 ha area of mitigation reflected where the impact on red-listed species, invasive plant species, visual quality, special features, fuel hazard and cultural features was predicted to be significant.
  • Monitor: 17,463 ha area of monitoring reflected where impact on structural stage, peak flows, terrain stability, surficial erosion and sedimentation, stream temperature and shading and riparian habitat was predicted to be significant.
  • Monitor Uncertainty: 29,512 ha area of monitoring uncertainty reflected the area of all values within the park for which significance could not be determined.
  • Total Park Area: 70,835 ha

 

Overall, results indicated that impacts are concentrated in the eastern portion of the park and through the highway corridor. However, substantial areas of trails and high-use areas throughout the Park are impacted. The large areas of “monitor uncertainty” and “monitor” reflect knowledge and data gaps that exist both in terms of data available for the Park and expected impacts of MPB on Park values.

 

The recommendations made based on the results of the analysis were:

 

1)      Increase the frequency of hazard tree assessments in areas where public safety, special feature or cultural feature impacts have been identified as significant or uncertain and concern has been confirmed on-site by a qualified professional.

 

2)      Where hazard tree removals are planned to occur consider the following:

a)      In areas with high pine mortality, consider removing a percentage of dead pine trees (even if not technically assessed as hazardous) to achieve an incremental reduction in dead pine volume. The percentage could be varied to maintain the aesthetic and environmental integrity of the area but should reduce the likelihood of a future spike in resource requirements for hazard tree removals.

b)     If peak flows or erosion/sediment delivery impacts are predicted to be significant and concern is confirmed on-site by a qualified professional, consider doubling riparian reserve zone widths and leaving slash on the ground unless it amounts to more than 5kg/m2 over an area of 100 m2.

c)      If terrain stability impacts are predicted to be significant and concern is confirmed on-site by a qualified professional, consider consulting a Professional Geologist to determine whether special removal methods are required.

d)     If invasive species, red-listed species, cultural features or special features are predicted to be significant and concern is confirmed on-site by a qualified professional, modify tree removal methods or boundaries to protect those values.

e)      If fuel hazard impacts are predicted to be significant and concern is confirmed on-site by a qualified professional, ensure that retained CWD is bucked and generally left lying flat to the ground (not elevated). Where slash exceeds 5kg/m2 over an area of 100 m2, consider piling and burning to reduce fuel load.

f)       Undertake tree removals in winter where possible to minimise potential hydrological, terrain stability and soil disturbance impacts.

g)      Design tree removals to minimize windthrow hazard by determining the susceptibility of residual tree species, historic windthrow patterns, topographic features and soil types and conditions. The MoFR procedure (Windthrow Field Card FS 712-2) could provide a suitable assessment method.

h)     If hazard tree removals in a riparian reserve zone are necessary, consult a fisheries biologist regarding potential mitigation strategies.

i)        If the riparian area consists of primarily dead pine (>60%), consult a fisheries biologist to determine whether rehabilitation of the riparian area is desirable.

j)        Retain species other than lodgepole pine unless they are identified as a hazard.

k)     Minimize damage to retained trees and understory vegetation.

l)        Leave slash greater than 15 cm in diameter on the ground unless it amounts to more than 5kg/m2 over an area of 100m2.

m)   Follow the Riparian Management Area Guidebook (FPC 1995) where tree removals occur near streams, rivers, lakes and wetlands.

n)     Avoid any mechanical or other disturbance in or within 20 m of S3 and S4 streams.

o)      Create tall stumps or stubs (3 to 5 m tall) as cavity sites where they do not create a worker safety or wildfire hazard.

p)     Retain CWD on site in a way that mimics its natural distribution of randomness and connectivity. Retain 2 to 5 pieces of greater than 12 cm dbh per square metre.

q)     Plan the timing of treatments to avoid disrupting applicable wildlife using the habitat. For example, avoid treatments in late winter/heavy snow years if ungulates are utilizing the site because the canopy is providing snow interception, or in spring/early summer during the nesting period.

r)       Stubs should be restricted to trees greater than 30 cm in dbh or where cavities already exist.

s)       When re-forestation is required, re-plant as soon as possible following treatment.

 

3)      Consider increasing the frequency of culvert and bridge assessments in areas where peak flow and surficial erosion/sediment delivery have been identified as significant or uncertain and concern has been confirmed on-site by a qualified professional.

 

4)      Given the temporary nature of MPB related impacts, the frequency and intensity of any monitoring that takes place within the Park should be determined based on Park management priorities. As a result, no specific schedule or standard is recommended in this report. The values for which monitoring was recommended include surficial erosion, stream temperature and shading, terrain stability, structural stage distribution, and riparian habitat. In all cases where uncertainty was identified, the recommendation is monitoring to address uncertainty. The exception to that statement is areas of uncertainty regarding public safety; the current annual parks wildlife danger tree assessment process is considered adequate to address uncertainty in these areas and should be maintained. If assessments identify dead pine in these areas, then the public safety impact is considered ‘significant’ and recommendations 1 and 2 apply.

 

5)      Consider working towards filling knowledge gaps that inhibit the ability to plan with certainty in the Park. Terrestrial Ecosystem Mapping in the park would greatly improve the ability for planners to undertake habitat mapping and identify sensitive ecosystems.


Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the following individuals for their contributions to the project:

 

Judy Millar and Kirk Illingworth of the Ministry of Environment provided valuable information and professional input into the development of the values and significance thresholds for inclusion in the analysis.

 

Grant MacHutchon and Damian Power provided the reports used to source habitat suitability index ratings for ecosystems in the Park.

 

Rob Scagel implemented the projected pine kill model on the Park’s vegetation inventory data.

 

Avram Sandor, Tamaki Kano, Ben Andrew, Philipp Walter, Colin Mahony and Bob Green of B.A. Blackwell & Associates Ltd. provided assistance with GIS, report editing, peer review, graphics and the compilation of background data.


Table of Contents

1     Introduction. 1

1.1       Project Objectives. 1

1.2       Study area overview.. 2

2     Methodology. 4

2.1       Primary Impact 4

2.1.1     Change in Pine Composition. 5

2.1.2     Change in openness. 6

2.1.3     Area of Primary Impact 6

2.2       Secondary Impacts. 7

2.2.1     Scoping. 7

2.2.2     Significance. 11

Peak Flows. 12

Sediment Delivery/Surficial Erosion. 13

Stream Temperature and Shading. 14

Terrain Stability. 15

Old Forest 16

Structural Stage Distribution. 17

Riparian. 18

Invasive Species. 19

Red Listed Species Occurrences. 20

Mule Deer and Black Tailed Deer. 21

Clark’s Nutcracker. 22

Grizzly and Black Bear. 23

Fuel Hazard. 24

Public Safety. 25

Special Features Zones. 26

Cultural Features. 27

Visual Quality. 28

2.3       Final Impact Overlay and Recommended Actions. 29

3     Results and Discussion. 30

3.1       Primary Impact 30

3.1.1     Change in Pine Composition and Openness. 31

3.1.2     Overall Primary Impact 32

3.2       Secondary Impact 36

3.2.1     Peak Flow.. 36

3.2.2     Sediment Delivery/Surficial Erosion. 39

3.2.3     Stream Temperature and Shading. 41

3.2.4     Terrain Stability. 44

3.2.5     Old Forest 46

3.2.6     Structural Stage Distribution. 46

3.2.7     Riparian Habitat 49

3.2.8     Invasive Plant Species. 54

3.2.9     Red-listed Species. 57

3.2.10       Wildlife. 59

Grizzly and Black Bear. 59

Mule Deer. 60

Clark’s Nutcracker. 60

3.2.11       Fuel Hazard. 65

3.2.12       Public Safety. 68

3.2.13       Special Features. 71

3.2.14       Cultural Features. 71

3.2.15       Visual Quality. 72

3.3       Overlay of Secondary Impacts and Recommended Management Responses. 76

4     Assumptions, Limitations and Future Considerations. 78

5     Recommended Actions. 79

6     Budget Estimates. 80

7     References. 81

 

List of Figures

Figure 1. Summary of methodology. 4

Figure 2. Average cumulative kill percentages for projected pine mortality within the Park. 31

Figure 3. Average % change in pine composition and % change in openness across the Park over time. 32

Figure 4. Representation of fire hazard succession following mountain pine beetle attack. 66

List of Tables

Table 1. Classification of pine composition. 6

Table 2. Classification of forest openness. 6

Table 3. E.C. Manning Provincial Park stepped impact matrix. 9

Table 4. Percent of Park area with watersheds potentially impacted by peak flow increases. 37

Table 5. Macro Stream Reaches with <20% forest cover over >10% of their length. 41

Table 6. Distribution of early-mid seral forest within the Park that does not meet Biodiversity Guidebook targets post-MPB attack. 46

Table 7. Riparian management areas where <60% of the RMA has >20% forest cover post-MPB attack. 49

Table 8. Invasive species found in the Park and vector matrix information. 54

Table 9. Summary of fuel hazard impact resulting from MPB attack in the Park. 65

Table 10. Estimated area where public safety is predicted to be impacted by MPB attack. 68

Table 11. Estimated length of named trails potentially impacted by MPB. 68

Table 12. Estimated area where special features are predicted to be impacted by MPB attack. 71

 


List of Maps

Map 1. Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification within E.C. Manning Provincial Park. 3

Map 2. Change in pine composition from 1999 to 2024 (only considers stands with a pine component). 33

Map 3. Change in openness over time from 1999 to 2024 (only considers stands with a pine component). 34

Map 4. Overall primary impact area. 35

Map 5. Peak flows predicted to be potentially significant in watersheds due to an equivalent clear cut area of >35%. 38

Map 6. Areas where surficial erosion is predicted to be potentially significant due to a substantial reduction in forest cover on steep slopes. 40

Map 7. Fish bearing streams where stream temperature and shading is predicted to be potentially impacted by MPB attack based on substantial reductions in forest cover. 43

Map 8. Areas within the Park where terrain stability may potentially be impacted by substantial reductions in forest cover. 45

Map 9. Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification zone and Natural Disturbance Type where distribution of early-mid seral forest is significant based on the Biodiversity Guidebook. 48

Map 10.  Sections of riparian habitat predicted to be potentially impacted by MPB attack. 53

Map 11. Areas where invasive plant species are predicted to potentially occur following tree removal activities. 56

Map 12.  Areas where red-listed species could potentially be impacted based on where hazard tree treatments are likely to occur. 58

Map 13. Areas where moderate-high suitability grizzly/black bear habitat overlaps with primary MPB impact area. 62

Map 14. Mule deer and black-tailed deer potentially suitable habitat that overlaps with MPB primary impact. 63

Map 15. Clark’s nutcracker potentially suitable habitat potentially impacted by MPB. 64

Map 16. Areas where fuel hazard is predicted to be potentially significant based on MPB impact. 67

Map 17. Areas where public safety is predicted to potentially be impacted by MPB attack. 70

Map 18. Areas where special features are predicted to be potentially impacted by MPB attack. 73

Map 19. Location of cultural features that are predicted to be potentially impacted by MPB. 74

Map 20. Areas where visual quality is predicted to be potentially impacted by MPB attack. 75

Map 21. Final impact overlay delineating areas for recommended actions. 77


1         Introduction

BC Parks has a mandate to manage for ecosystem processes. Park policy states:

Natural ecosystem processes affecting vegetation including fire, insects, disease, weather (i.e., wind, avalanches, etc.), herbivory by wildlife, and tree mortality due to age, are recognized as natural occurrences shaping vegetation. Ecosystems will be managed to maintain ecological processes in as natural a state as possible.

Numerous insects and diseases are active within E.C. Manning Provincial Park (hereinafter referred to as ‘the Park’). These forest health agents, when naturally occurring, contribute to the maintenance of biodiversity within the Park. However, when endemic pest populations reach outbreak or epidemic levels the scale of disturbance increases and cumulative effects can result in negative impacts on numerous forest and non-forest values.

 

The mountain pine beetle (Denroctonus ponderosae Hopk.) (MPB) is responsible for the largest recorded natural disturbance to occur both in British Columbia and its parks and protected areas system (Gawalko 2003). Mountain pine beetle is an endemic species in British Columbia (BC) but it is thought that human related activities have increased forest homogeneity in terms of age and species composition, and increased the density of vegetative cover. These changes have resulted in forest landscapes that are more susceptible to beetle attack (Samman and Logan 2000). If human activity has altered the landscape in a way that has facilitated the current MPB epidemic, then it may be appropriate to develop management strategies aimed at reducing its impacts (Samman and Logan 2000).

 

A coarse scale mountain pine beetle impact assessment was completed for 88 BC Parks in 2005 (B.A. Blackwell & Associates Ltd. 2005). The project quantified current and future impacts of the beetle on forested landscapes and related those impacts to the values that each Park was managed for. This was a coarse scale analysis that prioritized the 88 parks based on their assessed risk of mountain pine beetle impact. E.C. Manning Provincial Park was ranked as having moderate probability of impact from attack but extreme consequences of impact from attack. This result primarily reflects the mixed species composition and diverse ecosystems within the Park (lower probability of impact due to degree of pine composition) and the many values for which the Park is managed (higher consequence of impact). The results from the multi-Park analysis, in combination with Park planning priorities, led to the initiation of this more detailed, Park level mountain pine beetle impact assessment.

1.1      Project Objectives

The objectives of this impact assessment are to:

1)      Identify impacts on Park values resulting from mountain pine beetle attack;

2)      Assess impacts over time and space;

3)      Provide a reasonable assessment of impact given limited data, time and resources;

4)      Provide results that can be used for future planning; and,

5)      Develop recommendations for mitigation strategies and budgeting at the Park level.

1.2      Study area overview

E.C. Manning Provincial Park (70,835 ha) is managed both to protect natural values and provide all-season intensive recreation and backcountry recreation opportunities (BC Parks 2004). The ‘Management Plan for E.C. Manning Provincial Park and Cascade Recreation Area’ (BC Parks 2004) provides detailed descriptions of the Park environment and the values protected therein. The broad values protected within the Park include conservation, tourism and outdoor recreation, and cultural heritage values.

 

E.C. Manning Park contains deep valleys formed by the Skagit and the Similkameen river systems. Numerous creeks feed these rivers from the north and the south. The Sumallo River parallels the Hope Princeton highway and runs into the Skagit River.

 

The Park is situated in a transitional zone influenced by both the coast and interior climates and climatic conditions vary greatly across the area. In general the climate may be described as ‘Humid Continental’ dominated by mild, moist pacific air most of the year. The western part of the study area experiences a relatively wet and mild climate typical of the coast. The eastern portion experiences more severe conditions of temperature and extended periods of drought which are characteristic of the interior climate.

 

A number of biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification (BEC) zones and subzones are represented under the influence of both coastal and interior climates. There are five zones and eight subzones within the study area.  The zones include: the Coastal Western Hemlock, the Engelmann Spruce-Subalpine Fir, the Interior Douglas-fir, the Montane Spruce and the Coastal Mountain Heather Alpine Zone. Map 1 shows the location of zones and subzones within the Park. More detailed explanations of both the BEC system and relevant zones and subzones can be accessed through the Ministry of Forests and Range (MoFR) BECWeb[1].

 

Numerous tree species occur within the Park due to the diversity of ecosystems present. The most common species overall are Abies lasiocarpa (subalpine fir), Pinus contorta (lodgepole pine), Picea engelmannii (Engelmann spruce), Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir), Abies amabilis (Amabilis fir) and Tsuga heterophylla (western hemlock). Other species that occur less frequently in the Park include Pinus albicaulis (whitebark pine), Pinus ponderosa (ponderosa pine), Pinus monticola (western white pine), Larix lyallii (alpine larch), Thuja plicata (western redcedar), Picea sitchensis (sitka spruce), Tsuga mertensiana (mountain hemlock), Populus balsamifera (poplar), Populus balsamifera ssp. Trichocarpa (black cottonwood), Populus tremuloides (trembling aspen) and Alnus rubra (red alder).

Map 1. Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification within E.C. Manning Provincial Park.


2         Methodology

 

The project was broken down into three phases:

 

1.      Analysis of primary impact;

2.      Analysis of secondary impact; and,

3.      Final impact overlay and recommended actions.

 

Primary impact was defined as the direct impact of mountain pine beetle caused tree mortality.

 

Secondary impact was defined as the impact on park values resulting from one of two activity alternatives in response to primary impacts: 1) do nothing; and, 2) remove hazard trees.

 

Figure 1 summarizes the methodology of the impact assessment.

2.1      Primary Impact

The primary impacts considered were:

  • Change in pine composition; and
  • Change in openness.

 

Figure 1. Summary of methodology

Initially, change in forest composition from conifer dominated to mixed or deciduous dominated forest was also considered; however, a review of the results indicated that very few areas of the Park were affected by this type of change and the outcome of the primary impact layer was not judged to be sensitive to the inclusion of this layer. Therefore, it was assumed that the primary area of impact due to MPB attack was adequately described by change in pine composition and change in openness.

 

The primary impact layers (change in pine composition and change in openness) were developed using lodgepole pine mortality projections from year 3 of the provincial-level projection of the current mountain pine beetle outbreak[2] (Eng et al. 2006) and overlaying these with forest attributes extracted from provincial Vegetation Resource Inventory (VRI) data[3]. The year 3 results were updated with the 2005 Provincial Aerial Overview of Forest Health[4]. Year 4 results updated with 2006 aerial overview data have been published but did not include the data projected into the future and the projected data could not be obtained in time to complete this analysis. However, any discrepancies between the 2007 aerial overview data and the projection data were reviewed and incorporated into the analysis as areas of uncertainty and there are only slight differences between the year 3 and year 4 results (Walton et al. 2007).

 

Cumulative beetle kill scenarios were analyzed for years 1999 to 2024. Each forest cover polygon was assigned an averaged cumulative kill percentage and classified according to the following forest attributes for each beetle kill scenario: 1) pine composition (stand pine composition); and, 2) openness (as measured by changes in canopy cover).

 

Three beetle kill scenarios were used to assign impact ratings to each of the primary impacts. These were: 1) Pre-attack stand (stand status pre-attack from VRI); 2) 2024 projected cumulative kill (projected percentage of pine removed from the stand); and, 3) 100% pine kill (assuming 100% pine removed from the stand). The change between pre-attack stands (1) and 2024 projected stands (2) was used to derive ratings of high, moderate and low primary impact. Uncertainty was accounted for by incorporating 100% pine kill (3) into the layer as an additional rating. For example, if there was no change between the pre-attack and 2024 model results but the 100% pine kill results indicated a change, then the polygon was assigned to ‘uncertainty’.

 

The purpose of the ‘uncertainty’ rating was to capture areas where primary impacts may occur but are not modelled to occur. In addition, model results for beetle kill were averaged based on their spatial location relative to VRI polygons, therefore, beetle kill may potentially be over- or under-estimated within each polygon. The incorporation of uncertainty using 100% pine kill provides an estimate of uncertainty where impact maybe under-estimated and therefore enables a conservative overall estimate of impact. Given the lack of data on the impact of MPB attack in BC Parks, a conservative estimate (i.e., one that incorporates the worst case scenario of 100% pine kill as uncertainty) was judged to be an appropriate approach given the values at risk.

 

Time was incorporated into the analysis by determining the year in which the greatest change was modelled to occur and assigning it to past (1999-2007), present (2008-2015) or future (2016-2024). Broad time categories were used to allow for some assessment of impact over time for planning purposes, while acknowledging that there is uncertainty in projections into the future and the timing of the change may not be accurate to the year.

2.1.1      Change in Pine Composition

The pine composition attribute was a measure of the residual pine composition following beetle attack. It captured the amount of pine that remained in the stand. The pine composition classification is summarized in Table 1.

 

Table 1. Classification of pine composition.

Class

Pine component of stand

No pine

< 10%

Minor pine

>/= 10% and < 20%

Mixed pine

>/= 20% and < 50%

Leading pine

>/= 50%

 

The ratings assigned based on the change from pre-attack pine composition to 2024 pine composition were as follows:

 

  • High: Leading pine class to minor or no pine class
  • Moderate: Leading pine class to mixed pine class / Mixed pine class to no pine class
  • Low: Mixed pine class to minor pine class / Minor pine class to no pine class

 

Uncertainty was assigned when 100% pine kill indicated a change that was different from the 2024 result.

2.1.2      Change in openness

The change in openness attribute was a measure of the change in canopy cover following beetle attack. The openness classification is summarized in Table 2.

 

Table 2. Classification of forest openness.

Class

Canopy Cover

Non-forested

0%

Open

< 20%

Partial

20% < 60%

Closed

>/= 60%

 

The ratings assigned based on the change from pre-attack pine composition to 2024 pine composition were as follows:

 

  • High: Closed class to Open or Non-forested class
  • Moderate: Closed class to Partial class/ Partial class to Open or Non-forested class
  • Low: Open class to Non-forested class

 

Uncertainty was assigned when 100% pine kill indicated a change that was different from the 2024 result.

2.1.3      Area of Primary Impact

The change in pine composition and change in openness ratings were combined spatially to derive an overall assessment of primary impact. Uncertainty was assigned when it was carried through from both primary impact values.

 

Numeric values were assigned to High (3), Moderate (2) and Low (1) ratings for both ‘change in openness’ and ‘change in pine composition’. The values were then summed to derive ‘primary impact’. Primary impact value was defined as follows:

 

  • Low = 1 or 2
  • Moderate = 3 or 4
  • High = 5 or 6
  • Uncertainty = uncertainty exists in both primary impacts


The creation of the overall primary impact layer was based on the assumption that portions of the Park that have had or will experience the greatest change in openness and/or pine composition due to pine mortality are representative of the areas in the Park most impacted by MPB attack. The area of primary impact defines the spatial area of impact and the uncertainty in the area of impact.

2.2      Secondary Impacts

2.2.1      Scoping

Scoping is defined as the process used to identify the issues and impacts that are likely to be important in an impact assessment. In order to determine which secondary impacts may occur, it was necessary to identify the potential activities that would take place in the Park to address primary impacts. Given the BC Parks mandate to maintain natural ecosystem processes, it was determined that two activity alternatives were appropriate:

 

  1. Do nothing (the default state); or,
  2. Remove hazard trees (where public safety is at risk).

 

Either one of these activities could then be assessed based on its impact on values at risk to determine whether impacts were ‘significant’ and therefore whether mitigative actions were required.

 

Values at risk were identified either as Valued Ecosystem Components (VECs) or Valued Social Components (VSCs) that were known or suspected of being sensitive to the primary impacts. VEC/VSCs were initially identified by the project team and then vetted through consultation with BC Parks. A stepped matrix approach was used to aid the determination of how VEC/VSCs could potentially be impacted by changes in openness and pine composition (Table 3).

 

An important assumption that underlies the assessment of secondary impacts is that any tree removal activities will not result in any new area of permanent access or conversion to non-forest (access and fragmentation have not been considered as impacts). Any tree removal that takes place will only be to remove dead pine and hazard trees, no other tree species will be modified.

 

The VEC/VSCs were selected based on Park management values and available data. Initially, an extensive list of potential impacts was prepared. Then, based on available data and expert opinion, the list was reduced down to a manageable number (Table 3) of values that either directly or indirectly represented potential impacts on the Park. The criteria used to select VECs/VSCs were as follows:

  1. The value reflects Park management objectives;
  2. The value is likely to provide a direct or indirect measure of impact by MPB attack or subsequent tree removals;
  3. Adequate data exists to define the value within the Park;
  4. Adequate data or knowledge exists to make a prediction on the magnitude of change in the value and the significance of the impact.

 

Values that did not meet these criteria were excluded from the analysis and include traditional use, soil disturbance, noise generation, specific fish species, spotted owl, ungulate winter range and Park visitor use.


Table 3. E.C. Manning Provincial Park stepped impact matrix; the X denotes whether or not an impact is predicted as a result of either action.

 

Type of Action

Condition

Values

1. Take no action

2. Remove dead/ hazard trees

Initial

Change

Predicted Impact

Peak Flow

X

X

Reduced forest cover

Snow interception decreases

Peak flows are increased

Sediment delivery/surficial erosion

X

X

Reduced forest cover

Increased bare ground exposure to precipitation

Surficial erosion/sediment delivery is increased

Stream temperature and shading

X

X

Reduced forest cover

Increased ground and channel exposure to radiation

Stream temperatures are increased

Terrain Stability

X

X

Death/removal of trees

Roots decay

Terrain is less stable

Old Forest

X

X

Death/removal of old growth trees

Forest structure is altered

Less abundance of old seral stages

Structural stage distribution by BEC zone and NDT

X

X

Death/removal of trees

Structural stage distribution is altered

Increased abundance of early-mid seral stages

Riparian

X

X

Removal of trees

Disturbance of riparian habitat

Degraded riparian habitat

Invasive Species

 

X

Mechanical disturbance of site

Dispersal of invasive species onto site

Invasive species established on site

Red-listed Species Occurrences

 

X

Mechanical disturbance of site

Potential disturbance of occurrence

Species disturbed

Mule/Black-tailed Deer Habitat

X

X

Death/removal of trees in habitat

Forest structure and species composition is changed

Habitat is altered

 

Clark’s nutcracker Habitat

X

X

Death/removal of trees in habitat

Forest structure and species composition is changed

Habitat is altered

Bear Habitat

X

X

Death/removal of trees in habitat

Forest structure and species composition is changed

Habitat is altered

Fuel hazard

X

X

Standing dead trees

Red attack/trees fall or are felled and left on site

Fuel hazard is increased

Public safety

X

 

Standing dead trees

Increased probability of tree failure

Trees fall

Special features zones

X

X

Death/removal of trees

Falling trees or removal of trees threatens special feature

Special feature is degraded

Cultural features (archaeological, heritage)

X

X

Death/removal of trees

Falling trees or removal of trees threatens heritage features

Heritage feature is degraded

Visual quality

 

X

Removal of trees

Landscape is modified

Visual quality is reduced


2.2.2      Significance

Determining which changes were considered impacts and the magnitude of the impact required the prediction of significance. The indicators listed in Table 3 were used to predict significance and were based on available data, existing research and expert opinion. The following classifications were used:

 

  1. No Impact: If there is no overlap between the activity and the value in space or time the activity is assessed as having no impact.
  2. Significant Impact: A secondary impact that has the potential to negatively affect the value according to modelled primary impact results.
  3. Uncertain Impact: A secondary impact that is not predicted to potentially occur based on modelled primary impact results, but that could occur based on the 100% pine kill scenario.

The following tables outline how significance was determined for the impact on each value, the references used to determine the significance thresholds and the assumptions and limitations of the significance thresholds. Significance was then mapped for each impact within the Park.

 

In all cases, values that met significance thresholds pre-attack were not considered ‘significant’ post-attack because the impact was not significant due to MPB attack.


Peak Flows

 

Type of Action

 

 

 

 

 

1. Take no action

2. Remove dead/ hazard trees

 

 

 

 

Values affected by MPB

 

Condition

Significance Threshold

Initial

Changes

Predicted Impact

 

Peak Flows

x

x

Reduced forest cover

Snow interception decreases

Peak flows are increased

Equivalent Clear-cut Area > 35% of total watershed

GIS Layer Name: Peak_Flows

Data Sources used to Derive Layer:

Community watersheds (land resoure data warehouse), WSA (watershed atlas) 3rd order and greater watersheds (LRDW), VRI data (LRDW), cumulative pine kill (Eng et al. 2006).

Significance Thresholds:

ECA > 35% of watershed in 2024 (Significant)

ECA > 35% of watershed assuming 100% pine kill (Uncertain)

Other:

ECA = Area of opening x (1 – hydrological recovery)

Divide ECA by area of entire watershed and multiply by 100 to achieve %

Assumptions and Limitations:

Removal of overstory canopy increases peak flow.

Stand volume reduced by < 30% = 100% hydrological recovery, Volume reduced by >/= 30% </= 60% = 50% hydrological recovery, Volume reduced > 60% = 0% hydrological recovery.

Elevation >800 m therefore ECA weighted x 1.

ECA is an appropriate calculation for beetle killed areas; residual forest structure in MPB killed stands may well be different from that of forest harvesting.

No other potential or recent disturbance within the watershed has been considered.

3rd order and greater watersheds are an appropriate scale at which to assess the ECA; each was assessed as an entire watershed or sub-basin, not broken down by sub-basins or, alternatively, aggregated into watersheds (e.g., 3rd order watersheds were not calculated as sub-basins of a 4th order watershed but as discrete units).

This assessment was not completed by a professional hydrologist and was not part of a formal Watershed Assessment Procedure.

References: Watershed Assessment Procedure Guidebook (http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/tasb/legsregs/fpc/FPCGUIDE/wap/WAPGdbk-Web.pdf)

 


Sediment Delivery/Surficial Erosion

 

Type of Action

 

 

 

 

 

1. Take no action

2. Remove dead/ hazard trees

 

 

 

 

Values affected by MPB

 

Condition

Significance Threshold

Initial

Changes

Predicted Impact

 

Increased risk of sediment delivery/surficial erosion

X

X

Reduced forest cover

Increased bare ground exposure to precipitation

Surficial erosion/sediment delivery is increased

Slope is >60% and canopy cover is reduced from >60% (closed) to < 20% (open)

GIS Layer Name: Surficial_Erosion_Sediment_Delivery

Data Sources used to Derive Layer:

TRIM derived slope raster (LRDW), WSA 3rd order and greater watersheds (LRDW), community watersheds (LRDW), VRI data (LRDW), cumulative pine kill (Eng et al. 2006).

Significance Thresholds:

Slope >60% and forest cover reduced from >60% (Closed) to < 20% (Open) by 2024 (Significant)

Slope >60% and forest cover reduced from >60% (Closed) to < 20% (Open) assuming 100% pine kill (Uncertain)

Assumptions and Limitations:

Areas with > 60% slope are likely to be at risk from erosion.

Areas with dense pine cover killed by mountain pine beetle are likely to have bare ground exposed following beetle kill until ground cover has had time to establish; this is likely to be highly variable in reality.

No advanced regeneration in stands.

Areas where heavy pine removal occurs will have bare ground exposed due to mechanical tree removal.

Lack of appropriate scale surficial geology data requires reliance on >60% slope as a crude estimate of erosion hazard; some soil types have high erosion hazard at lower slope gradients.

References: Community Watershed Guidebook (http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/tasb/legsregs/FPC/fpcguide/WATRSHED/watertoc.htm); Mapping and Assessing Terrain Stability Guidebook (http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfd/library/ffip/BCMoF1999_C.pdf)


Stream Temperature and Shading

 

Type of Action

 

 

 

 

 

1. Take no action

2. Remove dead/ hazard trees

 

 

 

 

Values affected by MPB

 

Condition

Significance Threshold

Initial

Changes

Predicted Impact

 

Stream temperature and shading

X

X

Reduced forest cover

Increased ground and channel exposure to radiation

Stream temperatures are increased

Canopy cover is <20% over >10% of the stream length

GIS Layer Name: Stream_Temperature_Shading

Data Sources used to Derive Layer:

Macro stream reaches (LRDW), FISS fish occurrences (LRDW), VRI data (LRDW), cumulative pine kill (Eng et al. 2006)

Significance Thresholds:

Canopy cover < 20% (open) over 10% of the stream length by 2024 (significant)

Canopy cover < 20% (open) over 10% of the stream length assuming 100% pine kill (uncertain)

Assumptions and Limitations:

Macro stream reaches with gradients of less than 20% could support fish (sections with gradients greater than that cannot).

Forest cover loss within the VRI polygon through which the stream passes is an appropriate assessment criterion for ‘significantly’ reduced forest cover and may be adequate to increase stream temperature.

Pine may have been identified in the VRI polygon (source of forest cover estimates) but may not be present within the riparian corridor due to the scale of mapping.

Increased stream temperature will not necessarily have a negative impact in all cases.

References: Riparian Management Area Guidebook (http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/tasb/legsregs/fpc/fpcguide/riparian/rip-toc.htm)

 


Terrain Stability

 

Type of Action

 

 

 

 

 

1. Take no action

2. Remove dead/ hazard trees

 

 

 

 

Values affected by MPB

 

Condition

Significance Threshold

Initial

Changes

Predicted Impact

 

Terrain Stability

X

X

Death/removal of trees

Roots decay

Terrain is less stable

Slopes >60% and change in openness from >20% to </= 20%

GIS Layer Name: Terrain_Stability

Data Sources used to Derive Layer:

TRIM derived slope raster, VRI data (LRDW), cumulative pine kill (Eng et al. 2006)

Significance Thresholds:

Slope >60% (significant) where change in openness is moderate or high by 2024 (significant)

Slope >60% (significant) where change in openness is moderate or high assuming 100% pine kill (uncertain)

Assumptions and Limitations:

Slopes >60% have a higher risk of landslide following timber harvesting or substantial reduction in forest cover.

No advanced regeneration in stands.

Inadequate data to produce terrain stability class mapping therefore crude measure of >60% is used to indicate terrain stability.

Will likely over-estimate areas where terrain stability impact is significant.

References: Mapping and Assessing Terrain Stability Guidebook (http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfd/library/ffip/BCMoF1999_C.pdf)


Old Forest

 

Type of Action

 

 

 

 

 

1. Take no action