Mitigating Wildfire Risk:
Protecting BC’s Critical
Energy Infrastructure
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Building a Safer, More Reliable Energy Future
BC Hydro engaged with Blackwell Consulting Ltd. (Blackwell) to conduct a comprehensive wildfire risk assessment for its critical infrastructure and service areas across British Columbia.
Wildfire risk mapped along 19,000+ km of lines covering 113,000 km²
Background
BC Hydro, a major utility provider in British Columbia, faces increasing wildfire threats to its extensive network of transmission and distribution lines, substations, and generating facilities. In response to escalating wildfire activity and associated costs, BC Hydro engaged Blackwell to update and expand its Wildfire Risk Management System (WRMS), originally developed by Blackwell in 2004, to better protect critical infrastructure and public values.
A province-wide assessment at an extraordinary scale, spanning an area 3.5 times the size of Vancouver Island.
The goal was to proactively identify, quantify, and mitigate wildfire risks to ensure the safety of communities, protect assets, and maintain reliable power delivery.
This required developing a spatially explicit, data-driven system to assess and manage wildfire risk across 11 million hectares (an area 3.5 times the size of Vancouver Island) of BC Hydro rights-of-way, including both public and private lands.
The updated WRMS aimed to:
- Quantify the probability and consequences of wildfire events.
- Support risk-based decision-making for fuel management, infrastructure maintenance, and emergency planning.
- Prioritize mitigation efforts in high-risk areas.
Led by Bruce A. Blackwell, a recognised fire science expert, the project leveraged 30 years of experience in wildfire management and ecology.
How We Did This
The Wildfire Risk Management System (WRMS) utilised GIS-based modelling to map wildfire probabilities, including ignition, fire behaviour, and suppression capabilities, as well as the potential consequences to both infrastructure and public values.
This comprehensive analysis integrated a wide array of data sources, such as historical wildfire records from 1910 to 2019, various fuel types, detailed weather records, and infrastructure maps.
The assessment of wildfire risk for BC Hydro involved a comprehensive analysis of various risk components:
- The probability of wildfires was evaluated by examining ignition sources, such as human activities and lightning, as well as potential fire behaviour and suppression response. Most of the studied areas exhibited moderate to extreme ignition probability, with significant contributions from human and lightning causes.
- Fire behaviour in these areas ranged from negligible to very low, but certain patches posed moderate to high potential risks, especially where hazardous fuel types were present.
- Suppression capabilities were generally strong due to good access and resources, though theses could be strained during severe fire seasons.
- The consequences of wildfires were considered in terms of their impact on BC Hydro assets, private property, water sources, biodiversity, and timber value. Infrastructure assessments focused on criticality, road proximity, terrain steepness, and distance from line offices. Public values at risk included private properties, water sources, biodiversity, and timber value.
The Output:
A Data-Driven Risk Analysis Model
Blackwell’s team applied a modern, data-driven risk analysis model that integrates:
- Historical fire ignition data (e.g., over 1,000 wildfire ignitions analysed across BC Hydro’s service area in the past decade)
- Provincial fuel type mapping (covering millions of hectares of forested land)
- Weather and climate records (including fire weather indices and drought codes)
- Topography and vegetation inventories
- Proximity to water sources, roads, and air tanker/helicopter bases
The model separately assesses the probability of wildfire ignition and the consequences to public values and BC Hydro infrastructure. Spatial risk mapping identifies areas from very low to extreme risk, supporting targeted mitigation and resource allocation.
Key Data & Statistics
- Risk Zones Identified: The assessment mapped over 500 km of transmission lines in areas classified as “high” or “extreme” wildfire risk.
- Asset Exposure: More than 200 substations and critical assets were evaluated for wildfire vulnerability.
- Suppression Response: Average response times to high-risk sites were calculated, with some remote locations exceeding 45 minutes for initial attack resources.
- Community Impact: Over 50 communities and First Nations were included in the consequence analysis, with population-at-risk statistics used to prioritise mitigation.
- Historical Losses: The analysis referenced wildfire events that caused service interruptions affecting up to 100,000 customers in previous years.
Equipping BC Hydro with a practical system built, not just to assess risk, but to guide real decisions in the field.
Outcomes &
Recommendations
- Risk Zonation: The WRMS enables BC Hydro to identify and prioritise zones for fuel reduction, infrastructure upgrades, and targeted maintenance.
- Guideline Development: The findings support the creation of new vegetation management and fuel reduction guidelines for rights-of-way.
- Interagency Collaboration: The system promotes coordinated planning and communication with local governments, First Nations, and provincial agencies.
- Continuous Improvement: The model is designed for ongoing updates as new data and wildfire science emerge.
Lasting Impact
The assessment equipped BC Hydro with valuable insights to address wildfire risks effectively. It enabled the prioritisation of mitigation efforts for the most vulnerable areas, ensuring the protection of both public values and critical infrastructure. Furthermore, it enhanced emergency response capabilities and optimised resource allocation. The findings also supported strategic planning and regulatory compliance, ensuring a comprehensive approach to wildfire risk management.
BC Hydro’s collaboration with Blackwell demonstrates the value of a robust, science-based wildfire risk assessment. The approach delivers clear, actionable results that help safeguard communities and infrastructure against the growing threat of wildfires.
